Mike Huckabee announced Saturday night he would not take another shot at the White House, telling viewers tuned into his Fox News talk show that he had made a “spiritual” decision not to run. The former Republican governor of Arkansas dedicated much of his announcement to detailing why he would have been a strong candidate and tried to dispel speculation that his motivations were financial. “All the factors say go, but my heart says no.” Huckabee left little wiggle room in his decision. “I can’t know or predict the future,” he said, “but I know for now, my answer is clear and firm.”
In 2008, Huckabee’s appeal to evangelical voters and folsky charm helped him deliver a major upset in the Iowa caucuses. His candidacy faced a huge fundraising disadvantage and eventually petered out, but his affability stuck. In early polling of the 2012 presidential contest, Huckabee was consistently near the front of the pack and enjoyed higher favorability ratings than his peers, a fact he highlighted more than once in his Saturday announcement. Huckabee polled especially well in southern states and his history with Iowa suggested he could have been force early on.
After failing to capture the Republican presidential nomination in 2008, Huckabee signed his talk-show contract with Fox News and relocated to Florida. His new lifestyle did not augur another run. “He has one of best chances to win the nomination but also has the most to lose by getting in and not winning,” Sarah Huckabee told Politico last year, pointing out that her father has neither great personal wealth nor a public office to fall back on. “That’s a big risk to take. You have to go two years without an income,” she said. Huckabee’s successful TV gig, which he would have to give up to mount a campaign, has been kind to the Baptist minister and former public servant. He is reportedly building a $2.2 million home with 8,224 square feet of living space and a 2,969 square-foot porch on an $800,000 piece of property in Walton County.
But if anything betrayed Huckabee’s intentions, it was the forum for his announcement. Despite some last-minute buzz created by an e-mail sent Saturday to his closest supporters that promised “things will get even crazier” afterward,” declaring a presidential bid on cable television would have been legally fraught. Fox News already dropped Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum from contributor contracts after it became clear they were testing the waters for White House runs. If Huckabee had launched a campaign from the same airwaves, it might have constituted an in-kind contribution under campaign finance laws. Fox News also could have been forced to provide his opponents with an hour of free airtime under the “equal time rule.” The optics were somewhat of a giveaway as well– a presidential announcement on the heels of Ted Nugent performing “Cat Scratch Fever” and an interview with Mario Lopez would have lacked some… gravitas.
Huckabee’s decision not to run leaves a sizable power vacuum in an already weak GOP presidential primary field. Huckabee wasn’t just a potential frontrunner — he would have been uniquely well-positioned to dominate some early states and the religious conservative vote. His absence throws contests in Iowa and South Carolina even further up-for-grabs than they already were and presents a great deal of opportunity for other candidates to step into the breach to challenge front-runner Mitt Romney, whose moneyed powerbase lies among northeastern elites.
Several prospective beneficiaries were quick to send out statements cozying up to Huckabee in the wake of his announcement. “Mike and I agree our nation is facing big challenges and desperately needs new leadership, and I plan to work hard to earn the support of the millions of Americans who have supported him,” e-mailed former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. Former Speaker Newt Gingrich called the announcement “a wonderful example for all Americans of someone trying to do the right thing.” “Those of us who believe in the virtues and values of life and family can never have enough allies, and I am grateful to Governor Huckabee for helping to keep those issues front and center,” wrote ex-Senator Rick Santorum. “It is unfortunate that we will not have his voice — or his bass guitar — in the presidential debate,” lamented returning Ambassador to China Jon Huntsman.
The power of Huckabee’s brand, the reach of his Fox News show and his closeness to key Iowa players like social conservative Bob Vander Plaats ensure Huckabee’s will be a sought after voice in the 2012 contest. “I respect the way Huck came to his decision and announced it,” Pawlenty campaign manager Nick Ayers tweeted Saturday night. “He will still have a big say in this process.”
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